NFA Death Watch — the can, the flatline, the signal

NFADeathWatch · Numbers by Betsy · 13 Aug 2026

One Search Signal at a Time

After the stamp, the number that matters is demand.

Tax on cans, SBRs, and SBSs is $0. A Texas court knocked the federal registry for those arms. Machine guns, AOWs, and DDs still wear a stamp. State law still applies. This is what people are searching for anyway.

1 Jan 2026
The $200 federal making/transfer tax on suppressors, SBRs, and SBSs went to $0 (One Big Beautiful Bill, 2025).
5 Aug 2026
N.D. Texas held remaining NFA registration and approval for those arms lack taxing-power footing once the tax is $0 (Jensen v. ATF / related NRA–SAF actions).
Still true
Machine guns, AOWs, and DDs remain NFA. State law and the selling dealer still apply. Appeals are likely. This board is demand, not a ruling.

NFA language · last 24h pulse

  • 9mm95
  • 22 LR77
  • Glock77
  • Suppressor74
  • suppressor71
  • Winchester28
  • hunting23
  • 5.5619
  • 45 ACP15
  • Rugged15
  • 223 Rem13
  • 22 WMR11
  • 308 Win9

Unmet NFA · 30 days

Catalog-backed barcodes in network search through yesterday ET. Top of the list, not a census.

12

642230267862

Heckler & Koch

Can · 22 LR

11

810171227652

BANISH

Can · 9mm

8

609728889609

Gemtech

Can · 5.56

6

810128162289

Dead Air Silencers

Can · 22 LR

6

810171229687

BANISH

Can · 308 Win

4

810128162296

Dead Air Silencers

Can · 30 Cal

4

810128162944

Dead Air Silencers

Can · 30 Cal

4

816413028421

SilencerCo

Can · 30 Cal

2

815604018456

Daniel Defense

Can · 5.56

NFADeathWatch is an NFA demand board from Betsy Brand Intelligence: anonymized shopper search for suppressors, SBRs, SBSs, machine guns, AOWs, and DDs across GunSearchEngine and dealer embeds. It is not a law firm, not a newsroom, and not a same-store sales index.

Betsy Brand Intelligence measures anonymized shopper search intent across GunSearchEngine, GunSearchAgent embeds, and floor sensors — including unmet (zero-hit) demand. It is not a POS system and not a same-store unit-sales index. Betsy does not file Form 4, run NICS, or decide what is legal in your state.